ARTICLES

2004 Regional Championships - Prediction retrospective

John James continues his look at how 4BR did in the 2004 Regional Championship prediction stakes - the biggest brass band handicap race in the world.

We put our money where our big mouths were, but did we come away a few bob in our pockets or did the bookies clean up as usual?

This is how we did in the Third and Fourth Sections.

Third Section

Of the 56 bands in the 3rd Section, inclusive of the ‘dark horses’, we predicted were likely to finish in the frame 35 actually went on to achieve a place in the top 6 – another decent return getting over half right with a percentage of 62.5%.

If we take only the top 4 places in the eight Regions our band predictions covered 23 bands (of a possible 32 bands) giving a higher average and another impressive return of 71.9%.

We achieved a similar average to that of our overall rating with a 65% result in naming 13 of the 20 qualifying bands.

Our predictions had 3 places were the bands gained position and prediction and 10 were within one place either side. Lots of very near things with bands within a place or two (71.9%. in the top 4) have to be considered as well as the average percentage in this section which continued to figure over the 60% mark.

Our best Region was the North of England with 6 of our 7 bands featuring but it was a small section our best results coming therefore in Wales with 5 bands in the top 6. In the North West, Scotland & West of England 4 of our 7 all featured in the frame and the Midlands and London/S.C. Regions were not complete failures as 3 bands still featured in the frame. Some of our other predicted bands were very close to the prizes also with 5 bands just out of the frame in 7th so close to making our predictions way up in the ether.

Winners

St. Dennis - 4BR predicted 1st
Sandhurst Silver - 4BR predicted 1st
Stanley Newmarket Colliery - 4BR predicted 1st
Lockwood Brass - 4BR predicted 3rd
St. David's Brass - 4BR predicted 3rd
Shirland Welfare Training - 4BR predicted 4th
Hoover (Bolton) - 4BR predicted no place
Newtown - 4BR predicted no place

Runners-Up

Jedforest Instrumental - 4BR predicted 1st
Carlisle St. Stephens - 4BR predicted 5th
Hayle Town - 4BR predicted 6th
Chinnor - 4BR predicted 6th
Slaithwaite - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Royal Buckley - 4BR predicted no place
Stamford Brass - 4BR predicted no place
United Norwest 2000 Brass - 4BR predicted no place

3rd Place

Boarshurst Silver - 4BR predicted 1st
Beaumaris B - 4BR predicted 2nd
Littleport Brass - 4BR predicted 4th
Irvine and Dreghorn Brass- 4BR predicted 5th
Dinnington Colliery - 4BR predicted 6th
Ferryhill Town - 4BR predicted 6th
West Mercia Constabulary - 4BR predicted no place
Shrewton Silver - 4BR predicted no place

4th Place

Newbridge Celynen - 4BR predicted 1st
Maltby Miners Welfare - 4BR predicted 2nd
Murton Colliery - 4BR predicted 2nd
St. Stythians - 4BR predicted 2nd
Long Eaton Silver Prize - 4BR predicted 3rd
Wardle & District Anderson Brass - 4BR predicted 5th
Grimsdyke Brass - 4BR predicted no place
Buckhaven & Methil Miners - 4BR predicted no place

5th Place

Porthaethwy Menai Bridge - 4BR predicted 3rd
Bristol East - 4BR predicted 4th
Gawthorpe Brass '85' - 4BR predicted 4th
Stape Silver - 4BR predicted 4th
MacTaggart Scott Loanhead - 4BR predicted 6th
Trinity Girls - 4BR predicted 6th
Bradwell Silver - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Phoenix West Midlands Brass - 4BR predicted Dark Horse

6th Place

Campbeltown Brass - 4BR predicted 4th
Trefor - 4BR predicted 4th
Rainford Silver - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Swinton and District Excelsior - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Huddersfield Brass - 4BR predicted no place
Leicestershire Co-op Snibston Charnwood - 4BR predicted no place
Portishead Town - 4BR predicted no place
Woodbridge Excelsior - 4BR predicted no place

Outside the Top 6

Dearham- Came 7th - 4BR predicted 1st
Eccleston - Came 7th - 4BR predicted 4th
Emley Brass - Came 7th 4BR predicted 5th
Gillingham Imperial – Came 7th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Malvern Hills – Came 7th - 4BR predicted 6th
Fulbourn and Taversham – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Harlech – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 6th
Tullis Russell – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 2nd
WEM Jubilee – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Clifton and Lightcliffe - Came 9th - 4BR predicted 3rd
Dumfries Town - Came 9th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
St. Sebastian Wokingham – Came 9th - 4BR predicted 5th
Timperley – Came 9th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Daventry - Came 10th - 4BR predicted 1st
Hitchin – Came 10th - 4BR predicted 3rd
St. Breward – Came 12th 4BR predicted 3rd
Whitworth Vale and Healy – Came 13th - 4BR predicted 3rd
Saltash – Came 17th - 4BR predicted 5th
Ratby Co-operative – Came 18th - 4BR predicted 5th
Cross Keys - Withdrew - 4BR predicted 5th
Llanelli and District - Withdrew - 4BR predicted Dark Horse

This brings us round to the Fourth Section and here again we present the results in the same format as before, and once more we dispense with the “negative waves” to quote Tank crewman Moriarty in ‘Kelly’s Heroes’ - our oracle again didn’t do too badly.

Of the 56 bands in the Fourth Section, inclusive of the ‘dark horses’ we predicted were likely to finish in the frame 31 actually went on to achieve a place in the top 6 – another decent return getting over half right with a percentage of 55.4%.

If we take only the top 4 places in the eight Regions our band predictions covered 24 bands (of a possible 32 bands) giving a higher average and another impressive return of 75%.

We achieved the same 75% result in naming 15 of the 20 qualifying bands so our score rate on the higher positions and qualifiers in this section was in the higher percentages overall which shows that our predictions do bear fruit.

We predicted 3 bands who gained results by position and prediction and 10 where we were within one place either side however lots of very near things within a place or two have to be considered as well as the average percentage in this section continued to figure well over the 60% mark.

In this section we had a good return in 5 of the Regions whilst 3 Regions were less than a 50% return. One of our weakest returns in any section came here in the Midlands were we only placed 2 and West & London/S.C were only 3 came in the frame. To offset that we had 5 in the frame in three Regions: Yorkshire, Wales & North of England and backed that up with 4 bands each in Scotland and the North West to more than compensate.

5 places were gained by position and prediction including 3 winners and 6 were within one place either side. Overall we look good on paper we have to conclude once more.

Winners

Grange Moor - 4BR predicted 1st
Pemberton Old Wigan B - 4BR predicted 1st
Radyr and Morganstown - 4BR predicted 1st
Billingham Silver - 4BR predicted 3rd
Dunfermline Town - 4BR predicted 5th
Pillowell Silver - 4BR predicted 5th
Rushden Windmill - 4BR predicted 5th
Waterbeach Brass - 4BR predicted no place

Runners-Up

Newlands Concert - 4BR predicted 3rd
Uppermill - 4BR predicted 3rd
Bratton Silver - 4BR predicted 4th
Gawthorpe Brass - 4BR predicted 4th
Durham Constabulary - 4BR predicted 5th
Goodwick Brass - 4BR predicted 6th
Newhall - 4BR predicted no place
Potters Bar Town - 4BR predicted no place

3rd Place

Ogmore Valley - 4BR predicted 3rd
Bon Accord Silver B - 4BR predicted 1st
Matlock - 4BR predicted 2nd
Fulham Brass - 4BR predicted 4th
Barrow Concert - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Crofton Silver - 4BR predicted no place
Drybrook and District Silver - 4BR predicted no place
Standish - 4BR predicted no place

4th Place

Battle Town - 4BR predicted 5th
Severn Tunnel - 4BR predicted 5th
Coalburn Silver - 4BR predicted 6th
Five Rivers Brass - 4BR predicted 6th
Friezland - 4BR predicted 6th
Friendly Band (Sowerby Bridge) - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Enderby Youth - 4BR predicted no place
Swindon Brass - 4BR predicted no place

5th Place

Lofthouse 2000 - 4BR predicted 5th
Hilgay Silver - 4BR predicted 2nd
Dundee Instrumental (St. Margaret's) - 4BR predicted no place
Eaton's Farnsworth and Walkden - 4BR predicted no place
Holywell - 4BR predicted no place
Ilkeston Brass - 4BR predicted no place
Ulverston Town - 4BR predicted no place
Weymouth Concert Brass - 4BR predicted no place

6th Place

Downton - 4BR predicted 1st
Ripon City - 4BR predicted 1st
Linthwaite - 4BR predicted 2nd
Gwaun Cae Gurwen - 4BR predicted 4th
Dobcross Youth 2003 - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Creetown Silver - 4BR predicted no place
Dronfield CMW - 4BR predicted no place
Sussex Brass (Hastings) - 4BR predicted no place

Outside the Top 6

Calne Silver – Came 7th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Dearne Valley – Came 7th -4BR predicted 3rd
Penicuik Silver – Came 7th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Thundersley - Came 7th - 4BR predicted 1st
Hemel Hempstead - Came 8th - 4BR predicted 3rd
Kirkby Colliery Welfare – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 1st
Thurcroft – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 6th
Besses Boys- Came 9th - 4BR predicted 4th
Hawick Saxhorn – Came 9th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Stanhope Silver – Came 9th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Queensferry High – Came 10th - 4BR predicted 4th
Rivington and Adlington - Came 10th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Tideswell - Came 10th - 4BR predicted 4th
Torrington – Came 10th - 4BR predicted 6th
Askam Town – Came 11th - 4BR predicted 4th
Tadley Concert – Came 11th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Llwydcoed - Came12th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Sidmouth – Came 12th 4BR predicted 3rd
Shanklin – Came 13th - 4BR predicted 6th
Swineshead – Came 13th - 4BR predicted 6th
Chalgrove – Came 14th 4BR predicted 6th
Ireland Colliery – Came15th - 4BR predicted 6th
Tarleton – Came 15th - 4BR predicted 5th
Rolls Royce (Derby) - Came =16th 4BR predicted 3rd
Aberystwyth Youth - Withdrew - 4BR predicted 2nd

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