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2004 Regional Championships - Prediction retrospective
John James takes a light hearted look at how 4BR did in the 2004
Regional Championship prediction stakes - the biggest brass band
handicap race in the world.
We put our money where our big mouths were, but did we come away
a few bob in our pockets or did the bookies clean up as usual?
This how we did in the Championship Sections.
You may be reluctant (and so are we) to call 4BR
the complete brass band ‘Prediction Machine', but what we
do though, purely for a slice of fun, is attempt to bring everything
we know about predicting contest results together into one clear
and precise list for each contest – Section by Section for
this year’s Regional Championships.
Our entertaining forecasting of who we think will be the most likely
prizewinners continues to be one of 4BarsRest most popular features.
We never profess to knowing that we will get them all right, but
at least we are prepared each year to put our necks on the line.
Well that says it - 4BR has become and will continue to be the
brass band FDPO (Fundamental Dodgy Prediction Outfit)
and whilst we have always felt our predictions have generally been
very solid we have never fully analyzed them before.
For the first time here is an overall view of the 4BR predictions
for the Regionals 2004. So have we been any good?
We have long been aware that there has been a wariness to accept
that a mention by the FDPO is a positive plus point – more
like a kiss of death for many, so we apologise in advance if a mere
mention from 4BR come contest time sends a shiver up the collective
bandroom spine.
We were always confident that the predicted results for the Regionals
2004 would achieve a pretty reasonable return and so it proved.
This year’s FDPO represented a most convincing forecast indeed!
(We can hear the cheers the length and breadth of country as we
speak)
Final Analysis
We named 280 bands in the complete Regionals inclusive of the ‘dark
horses’ and of those we named 178 actually went on to achieve
a place in the top 6 - a tremendous return of 63.6%. This was only
a start because as the stakes got higher our results got better.
If we take only the top 4 places in the eight Regions our band
predictions covered 126 bands (for a possible 160 places up for
grabs) giving a 78.7% return.
We topped this though with a 81% return in naming qualifying bands
going on to take part in the National Finals.
When were asked ‘think about it” - we think our predictions
speak for themselves and we hope that you for one were one of our
“lucky numbers” on this occasion.
It does get harder to get the predictions in the higher percentages
in the lower sections there is no denying that. As Caroline Irwin
makes the point in the comments page a little while ago, bands can
fold or dramatically change in a year.
We have contributors to this site with a wealth of experience all
across the sections from Championship to Fourth Section so we know
full well the problems with losing players, moves with higher education,
transfers to higher sections, band politics and the like (we’ve
been there and worn the tee-shirt!) so we would like to conclude
by saying good luck to all the qualifying bands and our best wishes
for the Finals later in the year.
Trusting that you have enjoyed this round up for the Regional Championships
2004 and that if you get a call in our predictions for the Finals
you view it as a lucky black cat and not a ‘kiss of death’
!!!!!
FDPO (Fundamental Dodgy Prediction Outfit)
To begin we look back at the Championship Section this
year.
We named 56 bands in the Championship Sections around the country
inclusive of ‘dark horses’ that were likely to finish
in the frame, and of the 56 we named, 41 actually went on to achieve
a place in the top 6 - a decent enough return of 73.2%.
If we take only the top 4 places in the eight Regions our band
predictions covered 31 bands (of a possible 32 bands) giving a staggering
96.9% return!
Our FDPO represents a light-hearted feature and was started to
add a bit of zest to the usual contest scene. The fact that the
4BR team have years of experience in brass bands has probably got
something to do with their often-frequent accuracy - a fact we perhaps
sometimes understate.
It must be said though that the predictions have never been meant
to be taken too seriously, enough to foster rivalries and the like,
more viewed as friends discussing the outcome of a football match
prior to kick off.
So, on to the results.
Our best results must be the 13 places we nailed absolutely by
position and prediction, the 13 where we were within one place either
side and the Scotland Championship Section were we placed in absolutely
correct order those bands finishing 1st to 5th.
If we look at the Regions individually the Midlands was our weakest
with only 3 of our predictions coming good and this was just bettered
in the North were 4 of our bands figured. That was it though for
any slips in our prediction skills.
In the North West and Yorkshire we had 5 in the frame, whilst in
Wales, Scotland, London/S.C. and in the West of England we named
every band that finished in the top 6 frame in our predictions.
Of the bands we thought might make a trip to the Albert Hall (rather
than return a place in the frame) Flowers and Desford didn’t
return the results we had faith that they would.
That said, let’s line up the bands in this year’s predictions
with their actual place and our prediction to follow.
The Winners
BAYV Cory - 4BR predicted 1st
(Reg Vardy) Ever Ready - 4BR predicted 1st
Scottish Co-op - 4BR predicted 1st
Yorkshire Building Society - 4BR predicted 1st
JAG Mount Charles - 4BR predicted 2nd
Redbridge Brass - 4BR predicted 2nd
Leyland - 4BR predicted 3rd
Travelsphere Holidays - 4BR predicted 3rd
The Runners-Up
Black Dyke - 4BR predicted 2nd
Tredegar -4BR predicted 2nd
Whitburn - 4BR predicted 2nd
Fairey FP (Music) - 4BR predicted 1st
Alliance - 4BR predicted 3rd
Camborne - 4BR predicted 3rd
EYMS - 4BR predicted 3rd
Staffordshire - 4BR predicted 5th
3rd Place
Kirkintilloch -4BR predicted 3rd
Aveley and Newham - 4BR predicted 1st
Fishburn - 4BR predicted 2nd
Brighouse and Rastrick - 4BR predicted 4th
Wingates - 4BR predicted 6th
Yeovil - 4BR predicted 6th
Cwmaman Institute Tower Colliery - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Woolley Pritchard Sovereign Brass- 4BR predicted no placing
4th Place
BHK (UK) Ltd Horden - 4BR predicted 4th
Unison Kinneil - 4BR predicted 4th
SWT Woodfalls - 4BR predicted 4th
Fodens Richardson - 4BR predicted 2nd
Ransome - 4BR predicted 2nd
Beaumaris - 4BR predicted 3rd
Sellers International - 4BR predicted 5th
Friary Guildford - 4BR predicted as Dark Horse
5th Place
Kingdom Brass - 4BR predicted 5th
Grimethorpe Colliery - 4BR predicted 3rd
BTM - 4BR predicted 4th
Kidlington - 4BR predicted 6th
St. Austell - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
British Telecom - 4BR predicted no place
Chester le Street Riverside - 4BR predicted no place
Ratby Cooperative - 4BR predicted no place
6th Place
Tongwynlais Temperance - 4BR predicted 6th
Flowers - 4BR predicted 1st
Soham Comrades - 4BR predicted 5th
Bon Accord - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Haydock - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Harrogate - 4BR predicted no place
Jaguar (Coventry) - 4BR predicted 6th
Rothwell Temperance - 4BR predicted 6th
Outside the Top 6
Desford Colliery - Came 7th - 4BR predicted 1st
Dobcross – Came 7th - 4BR predicted 5th
Nestle Rowntree - Came 7th - 4BR predicted 6th
Besses o’ th’ Barn - Came 8th - 4BR predicted 4th
Burry Port - Came 8th - 4BR predicted 5th
Cottingham - Came 8th - 4BR predicted 5th
Bo'ness & Carriden - Came 8th - 4BR predicted 6th
Newstead Welfare - Came 8th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Thorseby Colliery – Came 9th - 4BR predicted 4th
Hepworth – Came 9th - 4BR – predicted 6th
Broughton’s Brass – Came 9th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Bodmin – Came 11th - 4BR predicted 5th
City of Oxford - Came 12th - 4BR predicted 4th
Glossop Old – Came 13th - 4BR predicted 6th
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