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Nationals Championship of Great Britain 2003
The Luck of the Draw: 1968 - 2002
We’ve been trawling through the record books again to try
and find out those types of details that keep your Band Secretary
awake at night with nightmares. Yes – the draw.
If you thought having an early draw meant the end of your chances
at the Open then you’ll won’t be glad to hear again
that it’s much the same picture when it comes to the National
Finals as well.
We’ve gone back to 1968 and fed the results of each contest
into our computer - and you don’t need to have a degree in
rocket science to tell what the results were. If you want to win,
then get a draw in the last third of the contest; you can just about
kiss your hopes goodbye if you are drawn number 1 or 2.
We’ve also had a look at the bottom six results for the past
15 years, and surprisingly they make interesting reading, as they
don’t really conform to what we have come to expect. It seems
that just about every number of the draw has had the misfortune
of being placed down with the dead men in the last few years –
so that will be of no comfort to you at all.
Top 6 Positions at the National Finals 1968 – 2002
Draw |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
|
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
3 |
1 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
7 |
4 |
|
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
6 |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
5 |
6 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
1 |
7 |
7 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
8 |
2 |
5 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
11 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
10 |
10 |
|
|
1 |
3 |
3 |
|
7 |
11 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
15 |
12 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
13 |
13 |
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
3 |
1 |
11 |
14 |
4 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
14 |
15 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
10 |
16 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
5 |
12 |
17 |
4 |
|
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
16 |
18 |
2 |
|
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
8 |
19 |
3 |
4 |
1 |
4 |
1 |
2 |
15 |
20 |
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
|
2 |
9 |
21 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
3 |
22 |
|
|
|
1 |
|
|
1 |
23 |
|
|
1 |
|
1 |
|
2 |
24 |
|
1 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
So the hard facts are these:
Numbers 1, 2, 4 and 10 have never won the top prize in the past
34 years, and we believe from our records that you have to go back
to 1910 for a performance from either number 1 or 2 to win, when
Fodens won off the number 2 spot.
Fodens did win from the draw number 4 - but back in 1932, so that’s
not much better and Fodens won again off number 10 in 1953. So if
they are very lucky and believe in coincidence then if any of those
numbers come out of the hat this year they could be happy.
The first quarter of the draw (1-5 as there are now 20 bands at
the contest each year) has only produced two winners since 1970,
when Fodens (again!) won off number 5 in 1999 and Desford won off
number 3 in 1991.
The best draw seems to be around numbers 11 – 17, which has
seen 18 winners since 1970 and no less than 13 runners up.
At the moment the very best draw seems to be number 17, which has
produced 16 top six prize winners since 1968.
Being drawn last really isn’t that good as number 20 has
just the one win in 1990 and three second places. Just 9 times has
the number set up the band for a mention off the stage.
As for the worse number of the lot? Well it’s definitely
number 5, with just 5 top six finishes in 31 years with a best of
1 win in 1999 and 1 second place. Beware.
This is the complete breakdown:
Number 1: No Wins: 2 Seconds (1978, 1990): 1 Third
(1979): 3 Fifths (1982, 1996, 2002): 2 Sixths (1993, 2000)
Number 2: No Wins: 1 Second (1977): 3 Thirds (1987,
1995, 1997): 1 Fourth (2001): 1 Fifth ( 1968): 1 Sixth (1984)
Number 3: 1 Win (1991): 2 Thirds (1981, 1985):
2 Fifths (1973, 1988): 2 Sixths (1976, 1988)
Number 4: No Wins: 2 Seconds (1984, 1990): 1 Third
(2002): 1 Fourth (1986): 1 Fifth (1993): 1 Sixth (1980)
Number 5: 1 Win: (1999): 1 Second (1994): 1 Third
(1982): 1 Fourth (1971): 1 Fifth (1995)
Number 6: 2 Wins (1981, 1997): 1 Second (1989):
2 Thirds (1986, 1996): 1 Fourth (1969): 1 Sixth (1985)
Number 7: 2 Wins (1972, 1973): 1 Second (1998): 1 Third (1993):
1 Fourth (1996): 1 Fifth (1974): 1 Sixth (1978)
Number 8: 2 Wins (1968, 1975): 5 Seconds (1979,
1982, 1985, 1993, 2000): 2 Thirds (1970, 1992): 1 Fifth (1972):
1 Sixth (2001)
Number 9: 3 Wins (1978, 1983, 1993): 2 Second
(1975, 2002): 2 Thirds (1973, 1977): 1 Fourth (1987): 2 Fifths (1981,
1985)
Number 10: No Wins: 1 Third (1969): 3 Fourths
(1976, 1981, 1994): 3 Fifths (1975, 1989, 1997)
Number 11: 2 Wins (1969, 1988): 2 Second (1968,
1995): 2 Thirds (1978, 1999): 2 Fourths (1970, 1983): 4 Fifths (1986,
1992, 1995, 1998) 3 Sixths (1977, 1989, 1997)
Number 12: 4 Wins (1970, 1986, 2000, 2001): 3
Seconds (1976, 1983, 1988): 1 third (1971): 1 Fourth (1975): 1 Fifth
(1984): 3 Sixths (1972, 1982, 1992)
Number 13: 1 Win (1979): 3 Seconds (1970, 1997,
1999): 3 Fourths (1978, 1984, 1992): 3 Fifths (1976, 1990, 2000,):
1 Sixth (1996)
Number 14: 4 Wins (1984, 1989, 1998, 2002): 2
Seconds (1971, 1981): 2 Thirds (1972, 1990): 2 Fourths (1977, 1985):
2 Fifths (1983, 1999): 2 Sixths (1974, 1987)
Number 15: 2 Wins (1974, 1976): 2 Seconds (1972,
1992): 1 Third (2000): 3 Fourths (1980, 1991, 1995): 2 Fifths (1978,
2001)
Number 16: 1 Win (1971): 1 Second (1974): 2 Thirds
(1980, 1998): 3 Fourths (1972, 1982, 1989): 5 Sixths (1973, 1975,
1983, 1986, 1994)
Number 17: 4 Wins (1982, 1985, 1992, 1995): 3
Thirds (1975, 1983, 1984): 3 Fourths (1973, 1993, 1997): 3 Fifths
(1979, 1980, 1987): 3 Sixths (1998, 1999, 2002)
Number 18: 2 Wins (1987, 1996): 4 Thirds (1974,
1988, 1994, 2001): 1 Fourth (2000): 1 Fifth (1977)
Number 19: 3 Wins (1977, 1980, 1994): 4 Seconds
(1973, 1986, 1987, 1996): 1 Third (1968): 4 Fourths (1974, 1979,
1988, 1990): 1 Fifth (1991): 2 Sixth (1969, 1995)
Number 20: 1 Win (1990): 3 Seconds (1980, 1991,
2001): 3 Fourths (1998, 1999, 2002): 2 Sixths (1979, 1981)
Number 21: No Wins: 2 Thirds (1976, 1989): 1 Sixth
(1991)
Number 22: No Wins: 1 Fourth (1968)
Number 23: No Wins: 1 Third (1991): 1 Fifth (1969)
Number 24: No Wins: 1 Second (1969)
The Bottom 6:
Not as bad as you may have first thought. Certainly having an early
draw doesn’t help, but overall coming down in the basement
list isn’t confined solely to number 1 – 5.
The worst culprit are in fact numbers 7 and 8, which has meant
your band coming in the relegation zone on 8 occasions in the past
16 years, so don’t seem too pleased with yourselves when your
Band Secretary comes back brandishing one fat lady in his pocket.
The list however makes interesting reading, not just for the fact
that the filed of competitors has now been reduced in the past ten
years from 23 bands to 20.
The Bottom 6: 1987 - 2002
Position and Draw Number
Year |
No of bands |
23 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
19 |
18 |
17 |
16 |
15 |
14 |
13 |
2002 |
20 |
|
|
|
3 |
7 |
2 |
12 |
18 |
6 |
|
|
2001 |
20 |
|
|
|
9 |
19 |
5 |
7 |
3 |
17 |
|
|
2000 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
5 |
7 |
17 |
4 |
14 |
16 |
|
1999 |
20 |
|
|
|
10 |
8 |
16 |
7 |
15 |
18 |
|
|
1998 |
20 |
|
|
|
12 |
9 |
15 |
13 |
8 |
19 |
|
|
1997 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
16 |
4 |
3 |
15 |
7 |
5 |
1996 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
17 |
8 |
5 |
11 |
2 |
12 |
|
1995 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
12 |
13 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
14 |
|
1994 |
20 |
|
|
|
13 |
7 |
20 |
8 |
4 |
15 |
|
|
1993 |
21 |
|
|
3 |
11 |
19 |
2 |
16 |
5 |
|
|
|
1992 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
7 |
9 |
3 |
10 |
19 |
1 |
|
1991 |
23 |
9 |
14 |
22 |
8 |
11 |
18 |
|
|
|
|
|
1990 |
23 |
18 |
11 |
22 |
5 |
6 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
1989 |
22 |
|
3 |
9 |
18 |
8 |
17 |
15 |
|
|
|
|
1988 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
1 |
2 |
15 |
17 |
7 |
16 |
|
1987 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
13 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
16 |
1 |
|
In the past 16 years the following draw numbers have come
up these many times in the bottom 6:
Number 1 – 4 times
Number 2 – 4 times
Number 3 – 6 times
Number 4 – 4 times
Number 5 – 6 times
Number 6 – 3 times
Number 7 – 8 times
Number 8 – 7 times
Number 9 – 6 times
Number 10 – 2 times
Number 11 – 4 times
Number 12 – 4 times
Number 13 – 4 times
Number 14 – 3 times
Number 15 – 5 times
Number 16 – 5 times
Number 17 – 5 times
Number 18 – 5 times
Number 19 – 3 times
Number 20 – 1 time
Number 21 – 0
Number 22 – 2 times
Number 23 - 0
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