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National Finals 2002:
Championship Section
The Luck of the Draw
We’ve been trawling through the record books again to try
and find out those types of details that keep your Band Secretary
awake at night with nightmares. Yes – the draw.
If you thought having an early draw meant the end of your chances
at the Open then you’ll not be glad to hear again that it’s
much the same picture when it comes to the National Finals as well.
We’ve gone back to 1970 and fed the results of each contest
into our computer and you don’t have to have a degree in rocket
science to tell what the results were. If you want to win, then
get a draw in the last third of the contest and kiss your hopes
goodbye if you are drawn number 1 or 2.
We’ve also had a look at the bottom six results for the past
15 years, and surprisingly they make interesting reading, as they
don’t really conform to what we have come to expect. It seems
that just about every number of the draw has had the misfortune
of being placed down with the dead men in the last few years –
so that will be of no comfort to you at all.
Top 6 Positions at the National Finals 1970 –
2001
| Draw |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
6th |
Total |
| 1 |
|
2 |
1 |
|
2 |
2 |
7 |
| 2 |
|
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
1 |
6 |
| 3 |
1 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
2 |
7 |
| 4 |
|
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
| 5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
5 |
| 6 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
|
1 |
6 |
| 7 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
7 |
| 8 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
|
1 |
1 |
10 |
| 9 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
9 |
| 10 |
|
|
|
3 |
3 |
|
6 |
| 11 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
3 |
13 |
| 12 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
13 |
| 13 |
1 |
3 |
|
3 |
4 |
1 |
12 |
| 14 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
13 |
| 15 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
9 |
| 16 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
|
5 |
12 |
| 17 |
4 |
|
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
15 |
| 18 |
2 |
|
4 |
1 |
1 |
|
8 |
| 19 |
3 |
4 |
|
4 |
1 |
1 |
13 |
| 20 |
1 |
3 |
|
2 |
|
2 |
8 |
| 21 |
|
|
2 |
|
|
1 |
3 |
| 22 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23 |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
1 |
Numbers 1, 2, 4 and 10 have never won the top prize in the past
31 years, and we believe from our records that you have to go back
to 1910 for a top 2 performance from either number 1 or 2, when
Fodens won off the number 2 draw.
Fodens won from the draw number 4 way back in 1932, so that’s
not much better and Fodens won again off number 10 in 1953. So knowing
their luck they’ll be drawn either 1, 2, 4 or 10.
The first quarter of the draw (1-5) has only produced two winners
since 1970, when Fodens (again!) won off number 5 in 1999 and Desford
won off number 3 in 1991.
The best draw seems to be around numbers 11 – 17, which has
seen 16 winners since 1970 and no less than 12 runners up.
At the moment the very best draw seems to be number 12, which has
produced the winners for the past two years.
Being drawn last really isn’t that good as numbers 20 and
21 have just 11 top 6 places between them in the last 31 years.
As for the worse number of the lot? Well it’s definitely
number 4, with just 5 top six finishes in 31 years with a best of
2 second places. Beware.
This is the complete breakdown:
Number 1: No Wins: 2 Seconds (1978, 1990): 1 Third (1979): 2 Fifths
(1982, 1996): 2 Sixths (1993, 2000)
Number 2: No Wins: 1 Second (1977): 3 Thirds (1987, 1995, 1997):
1 Fourth (2001): 1 Sixth (1984)
Number 3: 1 Win (1991): 2 Thirds (1981, 1985): 2 Fifths (1973,
1988): 2 Sixths (1976, 1988)
Number 4: No Wins: 2 Seconds (1984, 1990): 1 Fourth (1986): 1 Fifth
(1993): 1 Sixth (1980)
Number 5: 1 Win: (1999): 1 Second (1994): 1 Third (1982): 1 Fourth
(1971): 1 Fifth (1995)
Number 6: 2 Wins (1981, 1997): 1 Second (1989): 2 Thirds (1986,
1996): 1 Sixth (1985)
Number 7: 2 Wins (1972, 1973): 1 Second (1998): 1 Third (1993):
1 Fourth (1996): 1 Fifth (1974): 1 Sixth (1978)
Number 8: 1Win (1975): 5 Seconds (1979, 1982, 1985, 1993, 2000):
2 Thirds (1970, 1992): 1 Fifth (1972): 1 Sixth (2001)
Number 9: 3 Wins (1978, 1983, 1993): 1 Second (1975): 2 Thirds
(1973, 1977): 1 Fourth (1987): 2 Fifths (1981, 1985)
Number 10: No Wins: 3 Fourths (1976, 1981, 1994): 3 Fifths (1975,
1989, 1997)
Number 11: 1 Win (1988): 1 Second (1995): 2 Thirds (1978, 1999):
2 Fourths (1970, 1983): 4 Fifths (1986, 1992, 1995, 1998) 3 Sixths
(1977, 1989, 1997)
Number 12: 4 Wins (1970, 1986, 2000, 2001): 3 Seconds (1976, 1983,
1988): 1 third (1971): 1 Fourth (1975): 1 Fifth (1984): 3 Sixths
(1972, 1982, 1992)
Number 13: 1 Win (1979): 3 Seconds (1970, 1997, 1999): 3 Fourths
(1978, 1984, 1992): 3 Fifths (1976, 1990, 2000): 1 Sixth (1996)
Number 14: 3 Wins (1984, 1989, 1998): 2 Seconds (1971, 1981): 2
Thirds (1972, 1990): 2 Fourths (1977, 1985): 2 Fifths (1983, 1999):
2 Sixths (1974, 1987)
Number 15: 2 Wins (1974, 1976): 2 Seconds (1972, 1992): 1 Third
(2000): 3 Fourths (1980, 1991, 1995): 2 Fifths (1978, 2001)
Number 16: 1 Win (1971): 1 Second (1974): 2 Thirds (1980, 1998):
3 Fourths (1972, 1982, 1989): 5 Sixths (1973, 1975, 1983, 1986,
1994)
Number 17: 4 Wins (1982, 1985, 1992, 1995): 3 Thirds (1975, 1983,
1984): 3 Fourths (1973, 1993, 1997): 3 Fifths (1979, 1980, 1987):
2 Sixths (1998, 1999)
Number 18: 2 Wins (1987, 1996): 4 Thirds (1974, 1988, 1994, 2001):
1 Fourth (2000): 1 Fifth (1977)
Number 19: 3 Wins (1977, 1980, 1994): 4 Seconds (1973, 1986, 1987,
1996): 4 Fourths (1974, 1979, 1988, 1990): 1 Fifth (1991): 1 Sixth
(1995)
Number 20: 1 Win (1990): 3 Seconds (1980, 1991, 2001): 2 Fourths
(1998, 1999): 2 Sixths (1979, 1981)
Number 21: No Wins: 2 Thirds (1976, 1989): 1 Sixth (1991)
Number 22: No Wins: No Placings
Number 23: No Wins: 1 Third (1991)
The Bottom 6:
Not as bad as you may have first thought. Certainly having an early
draw doesn’t help, but overall coming down in the basement
list isn’t confined solely to number 1 – 5.
The worst culprit are in fact numbers 7 and 8, which has meant
your band coming in the relegation zone on 7 occasions in the past
15 years, so don’t seem too pleased with yourselves when your
Band Secretary comes back brandishing one fat lady in his pocket.
The list however makes interesting reading, not just for the fact
that the filed of competitors has now been reduced in the past ten
years from 23 bands to 20.
The Bottom 6: 1987 - 2001: click
here to see table
In the past 15 years the following draw numbers have come up these
many times in the bottom 6:
Number 1 – 4 times
Number 2 – 3 times
Number 3 – 5 times
Number 4 – 4 times
Number 5 – 6 times
Number 6 – 2 times
Number 7 – 7 times
Number 8 – 7 times
Number 9 – 6 times
Number 10 – 2 times
Number 11 – 4 times
Number 12 – 3 times
Number 13 – 4 times
Number 14 – 3 times
Number 15 – 5 times
Number 16 – 5 times
Number 17 – 5 times
Number 18 – 4 times
Number 19 – 3 times
Number 20 – 1 time
Number 21 – 0
Number 22 – 2 times
Number 23 - 0
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